Miami condo sellers outnumber buyers 274%, the third-widest gap in the U.S.

Condo sellers in Miami now outnumber buyers by almost four to one.

Redfin counted an estimated 10,234 sellers and 2,739 buyers in the Miami area in September, according to a report released Nov. 9. That puts sellers 274% ahead. Only San Antonio, at 459%, and Houston, at 322%, had wider gaps among the country's 50 most populous metros. Fort Lauderdale, which Redfin tracks separately, came in at 192%.

Nationally, there were 123% more condo sellers than buyers, the widest gap in Redfin's records going back to 2013. Redfin calls any market with more than 10% more sellers than buyers a buyer's market.

How Redfin counts

Sellers are condos actively listed for sale. Buyers are an estimate built from pending sales and the typical time between a buyer's first tour and closing. So the numbers measure pressure, not closed deals.

Local numbers point the same way

The latest MIAMI REALTORS report, for September, shows 12.3 months of supply for existing condos in Miami-Dade. Six to nine months is considered balanced. Single-family houses sat at 5.1 months, which still favors sellers.

Condo sales rose 1% from a year earlier, to 909. The median condo price slipped 0.7% to $417,090. Sellers got a median 94% of their original asking price. Condo listings fell 7.2% from a year earlier, to 11,706, but that is still more than a year of supply at the current pace.

Why owners are feeling it

Redfin points to rising insurance premiums, HOA fees and special assessments, especially in Florida and Texas, as reasons condo demand has fallen faster than demand for houses. Nationally, 37% of condos that sold in September had a price cut, and the typical one took 63 days to go under contract.

"If you really need to sell, the strategy is to list it lower than anybody else in the same building," Cecilia Cordova, a Redfin agent in Miami, said in the report. She also told Redfin that buyers should research a building's finances to avoid surprise assessments.

What it means for you

• Buyers: With more listings than buyers, there is more room to negotiate. A building's reserve study, recent assessments and insurance costs show what ownership really costs.
• Sellers: Redfin's Miami agent says competing listings in the same building set the bar, and sellers who must sell should price below them.
• Owners: HOA fees, insurance and special assessments are the costs Redfin says are weighing most on condo demand.

For more context, read our coverage of Miami-Dade's 12.3 months of condo supply and of Florida insurers cutting home and condo rates.

Buying or selling in Miami-Dade? The Miami Lookout is founded by Joe Biscaha, a Miami real estate advisor with Compass.